30 April 2006
Assisting Democratic Transition in Belarus: Lessons from Pre-1989 Poland
Author:
Jacek
Kucharczyk
Publisher:
Institute of Public Affairs, Warsaw, Poland
ul. Szpitalna 5, lok. 22
00-031 Warsaw
Poland
Tel: +48 22 556 4266
Fax: +48 22 845 6863
http://www.isp.org.pl
The outcome of the Belarusian elections of March 19, 2006 opens up the prospects of a prolonged struggle between Lukashenka’s dictatorial regime and the forces of democratic opposition and politically awakened parts of the civil society. In view of the brutal repression of protesters against the fraudulent elections and anyone daring to challenge the regime, the question arises as to what will be the best tactics and strategies for pro-democracy activists and their supporters in the West.
The degree of repressiveness of the Lukashenka regime, its methods combining soft and hard power, eludes comparison with pre-Orange Revolution Ukraine. Indeed, some Belarusian activists are inclined to draw comparisons between the situation in Belarus and Poland after martial law was imposed in late 1981. This article will examine such comparisons more closely, and will reflect on useful lessons that can be drawn from the struggle of Poland’s “Solidarity” movement by those who wish to see a free, democratic and Western-oriented Belarus. Such comparisons will also provide clues as to instruments of democratic assistance that could effectively be applied by those wishing to support democracy in Belarus.