23 November 2007
Poland's post-election foreign policy - a turning point?
Author:
Krzysztof
Bobiñski
Publisher:
Institute of Public Affairs, Warsaw, Poland
ul. Szpitalna 5, lok. 22
00-031 Warsaw
Poland
Tel: +48 22 556 4266
Fax: +48 22 845 6863
http://www.isp.org.pl
Poland’s autumn election followed the collapse of the coalition between the majority Law and Justice Party (PiS) and the Samoobrona Party and the League of Polish Families (LPR) two years before the end of the parliament’s four-year term. The resignation of the government came in the wake of accusations and counter-accusations between the coalition partners of corruption and unconstitutional behaviour. The short election campaign saw, in essence, a continuation of little more than the robust polemics between PiS and the Civic Platform (PO), the main opposition party during the government’s two years in office. The PiS-led
government’s foreign policy played a small part in the campaign, and what debate there was between the main contenders failed to reflect the electorate’s concerns over Poland’s continued involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as plans to site a US missile defence base in northern Poland. The election was fought on the government’s record in combatting corruption and saw a big mobilisation of voters on both sides of the political spectrum around this issue. High economic growth and declining unemployment during its entire term helped to buoy PiS’s support in the election. Ultimately, however, the contest1 was decided by an unprecedented
turnout of young people who voted to reject the government’s traditionalist domestic policies and inherent suspicion of the outside world.
The result of the election saw PO win the greatest number of seats in the Sejm and Senate, the two parliamentary chambers. Subsequently it established a governing coalition with the Polish People’s Party (PSL). The government brought in a new foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, to replace Anna Fotyga, who is likely to move to the President’s office. This presages a duality in Polish foreign policy which will make it difficult for the authorities to present a coherent face to the outside world. It will also bring differences on foreign policy issues into the domestic political debate, for while PiS lost the October election, the president, Lech Kaczynski, still has three years of his term to run. There is every indication that his approach to PO will be similar to that of his twin brother Jaroslaw, the head of PiS, who adopted a combatative stance towards the PO in the wake of the election.
The PiS government made a great deal of the fact that its foreign policy differed greatly from that of its predecessors in that it was more assertive towards the EU as well as to both Germany and Russia. However, in some respects there was a greater measure of continuity with previous administrations than initially met the eye. The question facing the current study is to what extent Poland’s
foreign policy will change with the new government – in the light of public attitudes and the election campaign.